Date: Mon, 20 Mar 1995 01:17:23 -0500 From: alerts@gatekeeper.nra.org (NRA Alerts) To: firearms-alert@shell.portal.com Subject: INFO: Letter Regarding Maryland University Report by Natl foundation for Firearms Education NATIONAL FOUNDATION FOR FIREARMS EDUCATION 185 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 212 696 1342 Telefax 212-545-0446 March 15, 1995 Robert L. Bartley, Editor Wall Street Journal 200 Liberty Street New York, NY 10281 Re: Associated Press story, about Maryland University report, relaxed guns laws increase homicides Dear Mr. Bartley: An Associated Press story, distributed today or yesterday, and which appears to be receiving much interest, says that a report from a Maryland University Violence Research Group shows that since concealed carry gun laws were relaxed, gun homicides have gone up in Florida, in Miami, Jacksonville and Tampa, and in Jackson, Mississippi. They declined in Portland, Oregon. The Maryland folk are in effect saying _post hoc ergo prompter hoc_--what comes after is caused by what came before. But that's a fallacy. _Unless_ the shooters were persons who _received carry licenses under the liberalized controls_, there can be no causal nexus between the loosened gun laws and increased homicide and the report is meaningless. But there were no data on homicides by licensees--perhaps because there were none. Second, unacceptable selectivity was exercised in picking the before-and-after periods that were compared. This skewed the result. For instance, the researchers went back to 1973 for the "before" in all the cities except Miami, where they only went back to 1983. Had they gone back to 1973 for Miami too, they would have found a decrease, not an increase, in homicides after the Florida gun law changed. Of course, this would have ruined their conclusions. Finally, since the Florida gun law was liberalized in 1987 over 260,000 concealed carry licenses have been issued. Since then through the end of 1993 (I don't think the 1994 FBI figures are out yet) the overall state homicide rate dropped 22% while it went up 15% nationally. The firearms homicide rate for the whole state went down 29%. This suggests that specific conditions in Jacksonville and Tampa account for those increases, not gun law changes. In short, the Maryland study is a doubtful proposition. I am reminded of the Seattle/Vancouver report of a few years ago, noting that Vancouver's homicide rate was much lower than Seattle's and assigning the cause as Canada's tighter gun laws. That study failed to say that the homicide rate for whites in Seattle was a little lower than in Vancouver-- it was the minority populations in Seattle that pushed up the average. But if strict handgun laws kept down homicide rates then the Vancouver white rate should have been lower than the Seattle white rate. It wasn't. Even the people too many journalists think of as the good guys on this issue like to play games with statistics. In this case, however, the game amounts to one of intellectual dishonesty. Very truly yours, (signed) Mark K. Benenson President NATIONAL FOUNDATION FOR FIREARMS EDUCATION 185 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 212 696 1342 Telefax 212-545-0446 BOARD OF DIRECTORS Chairman R.L. Wilson has written over 25 books on collectors' firearms and their users, including most recently _Theodore Roosevelt-Outdoorsman_ (Trophy Room Books, 1994) and _The Peacemakers: Arms and Adventure in the American West_ (Random House, 1992). President Mark K. Benenson was successively general secretary, chairman, vice-chairman of, and counsel to, the United States brance of Amnesty International, 1966-1980. The organization won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1977. Secretary and Treasurer Leslie D. Line was editor of _Audubon Magazine_ 1965-1991. Directors-at-Large Roy Innis is chairman of the Congress of Racial Equality. Michael V. Korda is a novelist and editor. =+=+= This information is presented as a service to the Internet community by the NRA/ILA. Some useful URLs: http://www.nra.org, gopher://gopher.nra.org, wais://wais.nra.org, ftp://ftp.nra.org, mailto:listproc@nra.org (Send the word help as the body of a message) Information can also be obtained by connecting to the NRA-ILA GUN-TALK BBS at (703) 934-2121. NRA.org is maintained by Mainstream.com mailto:info@mainstream.com __