Date: Tue, 21 Mar 1995 05:22:26 -0500
From: alerts@gatekeeper.nra.org (NRA Alerts)
To: firearms-alert@shell.portal.com
Subject: INFO: Questions and Answers Regarding University of Maryland Study


SOME QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER ABOUT THE UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND STUDY
OF RIGHT TO CARRY LEGISLATION AND HOMICIDE RATES

     In short, the study ignores that lawful carrying is apparently
involved in none of the criminal homicides reported, it uses
unrepresentative and small segments of three states' populations,
it uses carefully selected time frames, it uses a discredited
methodology which makes it impossible to isolate possible causal
factors for trends, it uses data which counts criminal and self-
defense homicides as equally bad, and it sloughs over the fact that
the homicide trend nationally was increasing while dropping in two
of the three states allegedly studied, and rising minimally in
Mississippi.

     Why did the authors start at the pre-law year of 1973?*

     Because they had to go back to the 1970's when homicide rates
were relatively low to make the homicide rates of the post-law
years look high.

     *Except for Miami which had a homicide explosion in the early
1980's (Mariel boat lift) thus if they started in 1973 the post-law
(1987-1992) homicide rate would be declining.  Therefore, they
started in 1983 instead.  

     How creditable are the researchers?

     These are the same researchers who showed in 1991 that D.C.'s
gun ban was working in reducing D.C.'s homicide rate.  At the time
D.C. had the highest homicide rate in the nation, and D.C.'s
homicide rate had tripled over that same period.

     Is there a problem with the methodology used?

     Yes, the methodology used cannot explain why a change
occurred, or which of variety of factors caused the change.  

     Are there any legal self-defense homicides included in the
study?

     Yes, the research uses National Center for Health Statistics
(NCHS) data on "homicide" instead of FBI data on "murder and
nonnegligent manslaughter."  The major difference is that some
civilian and justifiable/self defense homicides are excluded from
FBI data, but self-defense and justifiable homicides by civilians
are normally included in NCHS data.

     Was there any data in the study to suggest that permit holders
had committed any homicides?

     No, there was no data reported on homicides involving persons
with carry permits -- presumably because there were none.


     Were homicides that occurred in the home included in the
study.

     Yes, even though right to carry permits have no impact upon
firearms possession in the home, these homicides were included in
the study as well.

     Has there been any response from Florida law enforcement to
the study?

     Yes, the Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE) sent a
memo to the Governor saying, "From a law enforcement perspective,
the licensing process has not resulted in problems in the community
from people arming themselves with concealed weapons.  The strict
provisions of 790.06, Florida Statutes, preclude the licensing of
convicted felons, etc., thus allowing the permitting of law abiding
citizens who do not routinely commit crimes or otherwise violate
the law."

      Out of a total of 266,710 permits that have been issued, 19
have been revoked for firearms related incidents.

     The facts in Florida are clear, after enacting a statewide
right to carry law in 1987, Florida's homicide rate has declined
22%.  Florida now has a homicide rate below the national average,
prior to the 1987 law it was above the national average.  Florida's
violent crime rate has increased by 17.8% since 1987, while the
national average has risen by 22%.  Florida now has a lower rate of
handgun use in homicide than the national average.
=+=+=
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