From latzko@ns1.rutgers.edu Fri Feb 25 09:22:31 1994 Received: from demon.corp.portal.com (demon.corp.portal.com [156.151.1.10]) by jobe.shell.portal.com (8.6.4/8.6.4) with ESMTP id JAA20651 for ; Fri, 25 Feb 1994 09:22:30 -0800 Received: from nova.unix.portal.com (nova.unix.portal.com [156.151.1.101]) by demon.corp.portal.com (8.6.4/8.6.4) with ESMTP id JAA22539 for ; Fri, 25 Feb 1994 09:23:20 -0800 Received: from ns1.rutgers.edu (ns1.rutgers.edu [128.6.21.6]) by nova.unix.portal.com (8.6.4/8.6.4) with SMTP id JAA19685 for ; Fri, 25 Feb 1994 09:22:26 -0800 Received: by ns1.rutgers.edu (5.59/SMI4.0/RU1.5/3.08) id AA07814; Fri, 25 Feb 94 12:15:05 EST Received: from hsdndev.harvard.edu by ns1.rutgers.edu (5.59/SMI4.0/RU1.5/3.08) id AA07796; Fri, 25 Feb 94 12:14:54 EST To: info-firearms-politics@hsdndev.harvard.edu Path: NewsWatcher!user From: pstouffl@dsg.harvard.edu (Paul Stoufflet) Newsgroups: info.firearms.politics Subject: Re: mojo speaks... Followup-To: info.firearms.politics Date: Fri, 25 Feb 1994 12:10:38 +0000 Organization: Decision Systems Group Lines: 363 Message-Id: References: <199402222146.AA27323@lager.cisco.com> Nntp-Posting-Host: 134.174.81.92 Status: RO In article , holdwick_marc@macmail1.cig.mot.com (Marc Holdwick) wrote: > > Would someone tell me what the rules governing the ATF's tracing of a > firearm are? Can they trace anything, anytime, for any reason? Or do they > need a good reason (a warrant or crime commited) before they can trace? > Mark asks how valid the Cox study is, as it uses BATF traces to infer that "assault weapons" are disproportionately involved in criminal activity. Following is testimony by James J Baker before congress regarding that very study. For those of you who automatically think Baker is lying, as he is affiliated with the NRA, look only at the tables from the BATF. They show that the most common reason for these traces is "miscellaneous", excluding crimes. BEGIN ARTICLE ------ ANALYSIS OF THE COX ATLANTA JOURNAL CONSTITUTION 21 MAY 1989 ARTICLE ON ASSAULT WEAPONS APPENDIX TO TESTIMONY OF JAMES J. BAKER DIRECTOR-FEDERAL AFFAIRS NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION INSTITUTE FOR LEGISLATIVE ACTION BEFORE THE SELECT COMMITTEE ON NARCOTICS ABUSE AND CONTROL U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES THE RELATIVE LACK OF CRIMINAL MISUSE OF SEMIAUTOMATIC RIFLES WITHIN THE UNITED STATES This hearing primarily concerns the sources of supply of small arms to Colombian antigovernment forces and drug traffickers. As noted, the major sources are purchases or theft from the Colombian military and police, and transfer from Communist countries and movements. However, questions have been raised whether semiautomatic, military style rifles are disproportionately misused by drug traffickers and other criminals in the United States itself. As the following demonstrates, such rifles are the least likely type of firearms to be misused criminally. ATF RECORDS REVEAL THAT SEMIAUTOMATIC RIFLES ARE RARELY TRACED IN RELATION TO CRIMINAL MISUSE Records of firearms traces conducted by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms contain little or no information of use in connecting specific firearms with specific types of crime. Such records generated in recent months are particularly unreliable in this respect, because BATF has been conducting massive numbers of "forward traces" of semiautomatic firearms to determine ownership, and not due to any criminal misuse. In fact, ATF itself, rather than local police, requests the majority of traces, and the leading reason given for the majority of traces is "miscellaneous" and not some specific crime. The following analysis is based on ATF records disclosed under the Freedom of Information Act. The request was for the same records disclosed to the Cox newspapers resulting in publication of its article on "assault type guns." ATF stated about that study: In providing Cox Newspapers access to ATF's trace requests, we provided only normally disclosable information limited to the type of weapon, manufacturer, model, magazine capacity, serial number and type of crime. We do not necessarily agree with the conclusions of Cox Newspapers and need to express that all firearms trace requests submitted by law enforcement agencies are not crime guns and that the 42,000 traces examined are but a small percentage of all firearms recovered by law enforcement during the period. According to the Cox article, the firearms traced by ATF most frequently are handguns. In order of the number traced, they are: the Raven .25 cal. pistol; Smith & Wesson Model 60 .38 cal. revolver; Smith & Wesson Model 36 .38 cal. revolver; Jennings .22 cal. rimfire pistol; and the TEC-9 9mm pistol. Total traces by type of firearm are as follows: Firearm No. traced % of traces Revolver 13,983 33% Pistol 12,424 29% Shotgun 5,493 13% Rifle 5,305 12% "Assault weapon" 4,249 10% "All others" 738 2% Derringer 581 1% Total 42,818 The Cox article states that it reviewed traces of 42,758 firearms covering the period Jan. 1, 1988 through March 27, 1989. Atlanta Journal Constitution, May 21, 1989, A1 et seq. Throughout, the article alleges that the firearms were traced "to crimes," when in fact no crime was specified for the majority of traces. The Cox article used the term "assault weapon" or "assault gun," apparently because the data so totally fails to suggest any disproportionate use of "assault rifles," and to distort the statistics by including certain pistols and shotguns. ATF records disclosed under the Freedom of Information Act include listings of specific firearms traces, showing the requesting agency and the reason for the trace. The raw data reveals that "miscellaneous"--rather than a specific crime--is the most frequent reason for the trace; that ATF rather than local law enforcement is the most frequent requester; and that most "miscellaneous" traces are initiated by ATF. The reason appears to be that ATF has been "forward tracing" large numbers of semiautomatic firearms just to determine who purchased them and not in relation to any crime. Numerous licensed importers, manufacturers, and dealers have revealed to NRA that ATF inspectors have inspected and copied all records on purchasers of semiautomatic firearms allegedly to develop an "end user profile." Whether this program is a fishing expedition or a quasi-registration system, the "miscellaneous" traces are not suggestive of criminal misuse. ATF has confirmed the existence of its "forward tracing" program, but refuses to disclose records about the program under the Freedom of Information Act. Indeed, ATF refused the same inspection rights to ATF data to NRA as it accorded to Cox newspapers based on the following: "Your request to review the same material examined by personnel from the Atlanta Journal is denied. Personnel from the Atlanta Journal had access to ATF forms because they were acting on behalf of ATF at the time of their review. . . ." This contradicts ATF's statement above that "we provided only normally disclosable information" to Cox. A group of ATF records which exhibits the Cox-ATF mutual influence or agreement consists of listings of traces of "bad guns"--selected semiautomatic pistols, rifles, and shotguns of incomparable designs and tremendously different sporting uses, but with the common feature that Senator Metzenbaum does not like them. These are the "assault guns" discussed in the Cox article which were traced during 1988 and the first quarter of 1989. The leading firearms traced were not rifles at all, but were respectively the M10/M11 pistol (773 traced) and the TEC-9 pistol (767 traced). By contrast, there were only 689 traces of the "AR-15/M-16"--which would include both AR-15 target rifles sold at sporting goods stores, and M-16 machineguns stolen from the U.S. military. There was not a single trace of the Steyr AUG, one of the rifles banned from importation based on the allegation that "assault rifles" were being disproportionately misused in crime. Further, ATF records give no comparison data with ordinary revolvers, pistols, rifles, and shotguns, either in terms of quantities produced or number of traces. Most revealing is the reasons for the traces. For all of the "bad guns" combined--handguns and long guns together--the following are the trace categories: Reason for trace Number traced Percentage of traces Miscellaneous 2,137 43% Property related 663 13% Gun Control Act 525 11% Narcotics 1,078 22% Homicide 348 7% Assaults 176 4% Robbery 60 1% Arson 8 0.2% Sex crimes 3 0.1% Total 4,916 As is clear, 43% of the traces were for "miscellaneous" reasons. These could have included "forward traces" just to check on purchasers, without any suggestion of wrongdoing, as well as lost, found, and abandoned guns. For instance, local police may wish to determine the owner of a found or unclaimed firearm. "Property related" traces, 13% of the total, would include stolen firearms which have been recovered. Local police may be seeking the rightful owners in order to establish proof of burglary and similar crimes as well as to return the property. "Gun Control Act" traces, amounting to 11% of the total, would include every suspected technical violation under the Act. A hobbyist who sold one too many collector's items at a gun show, a licensee whose entire inventory is seized because of a recordkeeping violation, or a person who gave a firearm to a relative who lived in a different state are only some of the innocuous reasons which would prompt traces under the Gun Control Act. "Narcotics" related traces (22% of the total traces) are difficult to interpret. Situations involving such traces could be everything from a first time offender in possession of a small amount of marijuana for personal use who happened to have a firearm in a home where he was arrested, to a major crack or heroin trafficker who is a grave danger to society. Even so, the dangerous trafficker is far more likely to prefer a pistol or revolver of the same type that the police use, than such sporting rifles such as an AR-15 or a Mini 14. The "Homicide" category demonstrates the lack of value of the trace data. Rifles of all kinds are used in only 4% of all homicides, and military-style semiautomatic rifles have been linked to at most 1% of homicides. Of the 348 "bad guns" traced in connection with homicides, the ATF summary fails to distinguish rifles from pistols, or to give comparison data with pistols and revolvers of all kinds. The firearms traced in the Robbery, Arson, and Sex Crimes categories are practically negligible, especially when compared with the numbers of pistols and revolvers of the types used by police. To the extent the Cox/ATF data reveal anything regarding military-style semi-automatic rifles, it is that they are rarely involved in police traces of crime guns. Using data prepared by Smithsonian Institution's Edward C. Ezell regarding the number of various makes and models owned by Americans, police have requested traces on fewer than one-tenth of one percent of such rifles now owned. For example, during the 15-month period, only 105 of 126,000 AK-type semi-automatic rifles were traced in relation to the investigation of violent crimes--just nine one- hundredths of one percent, or roughly one of every 2,000 AK-type semi-automatics owned by Americans. In sum, contrary to the Cox article, very little can be concluded from ATF tracing data, except that ATF itself conducts most traces for "miscellaneous" reasons, such as checking on ordinary citizens who enjoy target shooting with semiautomatic firearms. The overwhelming majority of traces are conducted for reasons unrelated to violent crime, and the overwhelming majority of firearms used in crime are not traced. ACTUAL CRIME DATA DEMONSTRATES THAT SEMIAUTOMATIC RIFLES ARE RARELY USED IN CRIME The Cox study found that about 10% of the guns traced were "assault weapons" based on the definition used by the Bush Administration for the import ban and the list in the Metzenbaum bill for domestic firearms, with the number rather higher (a) in Los Angeles and South Florida, and (b) for "narcotics" and "organized crime" traces. The study reported a 46% increase in crime use for these guns between 1987 and 1988, and that the increase was continuing into 1989. If true, that criminal misuse is rising far slower than availability, for ATF affidavits suggest that the importation of such rifles increased 900% in the last two years, while traces less than doubled. ATF is asked to trace only a fraction of the guns used in crime. ATF traced about 35,000 guns, although there were over ten times that many gun-related crimes reported. Clearance rates are not that low, and in fact violent crimes represent only a minority of bases for guns traced. Cox thus found less than 500 so-called "assault weapons" traced in connection with violent crimes, only one tenth of one percent of about 360,000 gun- related violent crimes. Even if most traces were for real crimes, there are so few traces that nothing can be learned from looking at the guns traced. There are about 180,000 gun-related aggravated assaults reported to police annually, half of which were cleared by arrests, but only 1842 assault-related firearms were traced in the 15 month period. Thus, there was a gun traced for only one percent of aggravated assaults. No one can claim the ability to project involvement of a particular type of firearm in crime based on 1% reporting. Moreover, the 1% is an exaggeration, since it would involve all guns seized from someone arrested for an assault for which traces were requested, not necessarily just the firearm used in the assault. Cox claims that only 500,000 such guns are privately owned, based on defining imports as "assault weapons" if on the list of guns temporarily banned from importation and domestic if named in the Metzenbaum bill. But ATF has estimated 2-3 million, and Edward C. Ezell of the Smithsonian Institution estimates about 3- 4 million. If Los Angeles' tendency to trace military lookalikes is typical of law enforcement nationally, and if Los Angeles has 19% lookalikes compared to 10% nationally, then military lookalikes account for about 1 1/2% of "crime guns." If the ATF/Ezell figures are roughly accurate, then military-style semi- autos also account for about 1 1/2% of firearms owned by Americans and are not disproportionately used in crime. It is significant that Los Angeles was the place where Cox found the highest involvement in trace guns to be the so-called "assault weapons," since Los Angeles is also the place where the police looked into guns seized to get a percentage rather than just to guns traced. So-called "assault weapons" account for 3% of crime guns, according to the Los Angeles police, so their accounting for 19% of the guns traced simply demonstrates that police are more apt to trace so-called "assault weapons." Testimony of Detective Jimmy L. Trahin, Firearms/Ballistics Unit, to Subcommittee on Constitution, Senate Judiciary Committee, May 5, 1989. Trahin noted over 4,000 crime guns in Los Angeles, while Cox noted only 2,740 guns traced in the entire state of California. Clearly, the Cox percentage is based primarily on the fact that so-called "assault guns" are more apt to be traced than any others--and by a substantial margin. Indeed, if Los Angeles' 3% leads to 18% of traced guns, then it is possible that the national finding of roughly 10% of trace guns suggests nationally only about 1 1/2% of crime guns. The data suggest rifle use in crime is diminishing. In Florida, for example, between 1987 and 1988, rifle use in homicide fell from 3.9% of homicides to 2.6%, according to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement. In Washington, D.C., where drug trafficking was blamed for a 67% increase in the homicide rate between 1987 and 1988, only one homicide involved a rifle of any kind. In Chicago, 1988 saw more murderers using baseball bats than rifles. The Columbus Police Department has reported on the firearms seized during a period of roughly one year (April 29, 1988, to April 21, 1989) during "crack" raids. The 179 firearms seized--which did not include a single semiautomatic centerfire rifle--were in the following proportions: Revolvers 51% Semiautomatic pistols 30% Shotguns - long barreled, not semiauto 9% Shotguns - sawed off 4% Shotguns - semiauto 1% Rifles - .22 caliber, not semiauto 2% Rifles - .22 caliber semiauto 0.6% Rifles - center fire, not semiauto 0.6% Clearly, rifles of all kinds are the least desirable weapon of criminals, and semiautomatic centerfire rifles are misused far less than ordinary .22 caliber rimfire rifles. Nationally, according to FBI reports, firearms of all kinds accounted for just 4% of the homicides in 1987 and 1988. This represents a drop from the early 1980s, when over 1000 rifle related homicides annually were reported to the FBI. In the years 1986-88, fewer than 800 rifle-related homicides each year were reported to the FBI. The rifle-related homicide rate has dropped 30% during the 1980s, despite dramatic increases in the number of so-called "assault rifles." criminal misuse is rising far slower than availability, for ATF affidavits suggest that the importation of such rifles increased 900% in the last two years, while traces less than doubled. ATF is asked to trace only a fraction of the guns used in crime. ATF traced about 35,000 guns, although there were over ten times that many gun-related crimes reported. END ARTICLE -- Paul Stoufflet Decision Systems Group Brigham and Women's Hospital 75 Francis Street Boston, MA 02115 internet: pstouffl@dsg.harvard.edu work: (617) 732-7746