HOMICIDE TRENDS, WASHINGTON, D.C., BALTIMORE, BIG CITIES 
GENERALLY.

(The "study" by U.Md. criminologists in the New England Journal 
of Medicine used the period from 1968 through September 1976 as 
pre-law, and the rest of 1976 through 1987 as post-law.  In fact, 
the law took effect not in September 1976 but in February 1977, 
so all of 1976 may be considered pre-law.  [Deleting the final 
quarter of 1976 from D.C. would raise its projected 1976 homicide 
rate to 27.8 and would lower the post-law average rate, Oct.1976-
Dec.1987, fractionally from 30.0 to about 29.9 per 100,000 -- 
depending upon what one chooses as the average population.]  The 
NEJM article relied upon National Center for Health Statistics 
data -- which would differ from the FBI data used here in that 
justifiable homicides by police and civilians are not reported in 
the FBI data.  In September 1982, the voters of D.C. by 
initiative adopted an NRA-backed mandatory penalty for using a 
firearm in a violent or drug-trafficking offense.)

	NUMBER/RATE OF CRIMINAL HOMICIDES (FBI)
YEAR	 BALTIMORE	WASHINGTON	RATE/BIG CITIES
			(pop.)	      (pop.)
                             [quarterly]	over 250,000
____    ____________   ________________    ________________

1968		239			195				14.2
1969		236			287				15.7
1970		231 (906,000)	221 (757,000)		17.5
1971		323			275				19.2
1972		330			245				19.7
1973		280			268				20.7
1974		293			277 [-,66,-,90]	21.5
1975		259			235 [56,59,66,55]	21.4
1976		200			188 [57,51,38,42]	19.3

1977		171			192 [50,50,51,41]	19.5
1978		197			189 [37,49,60,43]	20.3
1979		245			180				23.1
1980		216 (785,000)	200 (635,000)		24.4
1981		228			223				23.5
1982		227			194				21.7
1983		201			183				20.2
1984		215			178				18.6
1985		213			147				19.0
1986		240			194				21.4
1987		226			225				20.4

1988		234			369				21.2
1989		262			434				22.5
1990		305 (736,000)	472 (607,000)		25.6