Date: Wed, 4 Jan 1995 02:09:52 -0800 From: Jeff Chan To: firearms-alert Subject: INFO: NRA major factor in November election, says Campaign & Elections article [I've saved this message in my ftp directory as: http://rkba.org/research/stat/nov94ce.txt] __ Scott Lieberman sent me an article from the December/January 1995 issue of Campaigns & Elections (a political insider magazine) by Brad O'Leary titled: "Fire Power -- Surprising Poll Results and Election Returns Show that the National Rifle Association Had a lot More to Do with November 8 than Most Pundits Realize" O'Leary presents the results of a November 9 Fabrizio/McLaughlin survey of 1000 who voted in the previous day's election. These voters reported membership in or support of the following groups: Christian Coalition 9.6% NRA 15.1% United We Stand 6.7% Asked if they supported the Republican or Democrat canididate for Senate, they reported: Christian Coalition Republican 78% Democrat 22% NRA Republican 72% Democrat 28% United We Stand Republican 62% Democrat 38% Asked if they supported the Republican or Democrat canididate for House, they reported: Christian Coalition Republican 74% Democrat 26% NRA Republican 65% Democrat 35% United We Stand Republican 57% Democrat 43% Though all three organizations split their endorsements, most non-incumbent endorsements were won by Republicans this time. "In previous elections, the National Rifle Association members voted for as many congressional Democrats as they did for congressional Republicans, so this is a major change in their preferences," O'Leary Wrote. O'Leary then relates an incident that probably affected this outcome. Democratic Majority Leader George Mitchell and House Speaker Tom Foley, previously supported by NRA, set up a meeting with President Clinton and his pollster Stanley Greenberg in which the polster claimed polling data showed no Democrat member of Congress who defected from the NRA would suffer on election day. According to O'Leary: "Foley and Mitchell argued that including a gun ban in the crime bill was a major mistake and would mobilize gun owners and National Rifle Association members against incumbent Democrats who supported the Clinton crime bill." O'Leary then relates the results of polls by Harris & Gallup, Times Mirror Company, and the Tarrance Group showing "between 23 and 27 million voters who are either members, affiliated members or associated members who identify with the beliefs of the National Rifle Association." [Unfortunatelty I don't have my Kleck book handy for some comparison of opinion polling data.] The author presents a table of statewide or congressional races where "perceived NRA membership" made the margin of victory. These perceived membership numbers were computed from Harris and Gallup polls for each district. Especially noteworthy is that about *65* House and Senate races are listed. Highlighted are two Congressional races there NRA-bashing and HCI support were key: Jane Harman in CA-36 and Karen Shepard in Utah-2. Shepard had Sarah Brady campaigning for her and lost by a large margin. Harman wore NRA's opposition as a badge of courage and nearly lost her close election, ultimately winning only by a very slim 48.0% to 47.6%. Polling data by O'Leary are presented. People were asked which organization or group speaks for them all of the time, most of the time, or some of the time. The "all of the time" responses were: Democrat Party 22% Republican Party 23% NRA 27% United We Stand 15% Christian Coalition 17% Further analyses showed that "more women support the National Rifle Association all of the time than suppport the Republican Party all of the time." Canidates Phil Batt (Idaho), Spence Abraham (MI), Rod Grams (MN), James Inhofe (OK), Rick Santorum (PA), Bill Frist and Fred Thompson (TN), and David Beasly (SC) openly supported NRA, some bragging about their membership. The article closes: "[W]omen who supported the National Rifle Association all of the time cast their votes by a margin of almost 95% with these candidates.... *Translation:* It's a myth that any candidate who supports the NRA runs the risk of losing women voters." [Thanks for sending me the article Scott! For further info contact Campaigns & Elections or Mr. O'Leary. I don't have contact info handy.] -- Jeff Chan Internet: chan@shell.portal.com uucp mail: {apple,claris,pyramid}!shell.portal.com!chan (Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are mine unless otherwise noted.) +---------------------------------------------------------------+ | We should measure progress not by how many laws can | | be passed but by how little governing people need. | +---------------------------------------------------------------+ WWW URL: http://www.portal.com/~chan/firearms.faq.html <<< NEW! ftp: ftp.shell.portal.com: pub/chan: README, INDEX, firearms.faq firearms, liberty mailing lists: majordomo@shell.portal.com: help